The Development and Verification of TIPS: An Expert System to Forecast Thunderstorm Occurrence

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  • 1 Battlefield Environment Directorate, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico
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Abstract

A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weather forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was built by using meteorological principles associated with convective activity. The goal of TIPS is to provide a generalized system that can be used at any geographical location. TIPS was evaluated during the spring and summer months of 1990 for several locations across the United States. Thunderstorm forecasts were derived using 1200 UTC, atmospheric sounding data, and a single forecaster input value. Verification results show that TIPS can assist the weather forecaster in predicting thunderstorm occurrence.

Abstract

A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weather forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was built by using meteorological principles associated with convective activity. The goal of TIPS is to provide a generalized system that can be used at any geographical location. TIPS was evaluated during the spring and summer months of 1990 for several locations across the United States. Thunderstorm forecasts were derived using 1200 UTC, atmospheric sounding data, and a single forecaster input value. Verification results show that TIPS can assist the weather forecaster in predicting thunderstorm occurrence.

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