Effect of Aerosol on the Susceptibility and Efficiency of Precipitation in Warm Trade Cumulus Clouds

Hongli Jiang Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Graham Feingold NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Armin Sorooshian Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

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Abstract

Large-eddy simulations of warm, trade wind cumulus clouds are conducted for a range of aerosol conditions with a focus on precipitating clouds. Individual clouds are tracked over the course of their lifetimes. Precipitation rate decreases progressively as aerosol increases. For larger, precipitating clouds, the polluted clouds have longer lifetimes because of precipitation suppression. For clean aerosol conditions, there is good agreement between the average model precipitation rate and that calculated based on observed radar reflectivity Z and precipitation rate R relationships. Precipitation rate can be expressed as a power-law function of liquid water path (LWP) and Nd, to reasonable accuracy. The respective powers for LWP and Nd are of similar magnitude compared to those based on observational studies of stratocumulus clouds. The time-integrated precipitation rate represented by a power-law function of LWP, Nd, and cloud lifetime is much more reliably predicted than is R expressed in terms of LWP and Nd alone. The precipitation susceptibility (So = −dlnR/dlnNd) that quantifies the sensitivity of precipitation to changes in Nd depends strongly on LWP and exhibits nonmonotonic behavior with a maximum at intermediate LWP values. The relationship between So and precipitation efficiency is explored and the importance of including dependence on Nd in the latter is highlighted. The results provide trade cumulus cloud population statistics, as well as relationships between microphysical/macrophysical properties and precipitation, that are amenable for use in larger-scale models.

Corresponding author address: Hongli Jiang, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305. Email: hongli.jiang@noaa.gov

Abstract

Large-eddy simulations of warm, trade wind cumulus clouds are conducted for a range of aerosol conditions with a focus on precipitating clouds. Individual clouds are tracked over the course of their lifetimes. Precipitation rate decreases progressively as aerosol increases. For larger, precipitating clouds, the polluted clouds have longer lifetimes because of precipitation suppression. For clean aerosol conditions, there is good agreement between the average model precipitation rate and that calculated based on observed radar reflectivity Z and precipitation rate R relationships. Precipitation rate can be expressed as a power-law function of liquid water path (LWP) and Nd, to reasonable accuracy. The respective powers for LWP and Nd are of similar magnitude compared to those based on observational studies of stratocumulus clouds. The time-integrated precipitation rate represented by a power-law function of LWP, Nd, and cloud lifetime is much more reliably predicted than is R expressed in terms of LWP and Nd alone. The precipitation susceptibility (So = −dlnR/dlnNd) that quantifies the sensitivity of precipitation to changes in Nd depends strongly on LWP and exhibits nonmonotonic behavior with a maximum at intermediate LWP values. The relationship between So and precipitation efficiency is explored and the importance of including dependence on Nd in the latter is highlighted. The results provide trade cumulus cloud population statistics, as well as relationships between microphysical/macrophysical properties and precipitation, that are amenable for use in larger-scale models.

Corresponding author address: Hongli Jiang, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305. Email: hongli.jiang@noaa.gov

1. Introduction

The importance of shallow warm cumulus clouds in transporting energy, moisture, and pollutants to the free troposphere has long been established. Detrainment moistening and evaporative cooling at cloud top destabilize the local environment and promote deeper convection (e.g., Malkus 1958; Stevens and Seifert 2008). Shallow cumulus clouds also modify the planetary albedo and affect the earth’s radiative budget (Wielicki et al. 2002). They play a major role in regulating the climate response to cloud feedbacks and are linked to the biggest uncertainties in climate sensitivity (e.g., Bony and Dufresne 2005; Medeiros et al. 2008).

A population of shallow cumulus clouds consists of a high proportion of small, nonprecipitating clouds (e.g., Plank 1969; Jiang et al. 2009) and some larger, precipitating clouds (e.g., Short and Nakamura 2000). The precipitating clouds in the population (cloud diameter >1000 m; e.g., Benner and Curry 1998) can contribute up to 10%–20% of the total rainfall over the ocean (e.g., Short and Nakamura 2000) and an even higher percentage over a smaller area of the trade wind regime under humid meteorological conditions (e.g., Nuijens et al. 2009).

Most of the warm cloud studies exploring the relationship between precipitation rate R and cloud macrophysical [e.g., liquid water path (LWP) and cloud depth] and microphysical (drop or aerosol concentration, Nd or Na) properties have focused on stratocumulus clouds. Observations suggest that rain rate R can be expressed as a simple power-law function of LWP and Nd (e.g., Pawlowska and Brenguier 2003; Comstock et al. 2004; vanZanten et al. 2005). Similar relationships have been derived from model output (e.g., Geoffroy et al. 2008; Wang and Feingold 2009). Whether the relationship derived from stratocumulus can be applied to shallow cumulus convection, given their different dynamical and morphological characteristics, is unknown.

This has motivated us to examine the relationship between precipitation rate R, LWP, and droplet concentration Nd and for the first time to consider the effect of cloud lifetime on R in a model-generated population of cumulus clouds. The inclusion of cloud lifetime is important in that the development of precipitation depends on the cloud microphysical environment (broadly defined by Nd and LWC) and also the time available for the collision–coalescence processes (Feingold et al. 1996).

Although the initial growth of precipitation (autoconversion) has been shown to be approximately dependent on Nd−1, the accretion of small drops by large drops is independent of Nd (e.g., Berry 1968; Stevens and Seifert 2008; Wood et al. 2009). Therefore, derived values of the dependence of R on Nd reflect the balance between autoconversion and accretion. However, as discussed by Wood (2006) and Mechem et al. (2006), the rate of depletion of Nd (closely tied to rain production) due to autoconversion and accretion can be comparable under certain conditions so that the dependence of R on Nd is not easy to predict. Whether these two processes can be clearly separated in cumulus clouds and whether they are strongly correlated to other macrophysical properties such as LWP will be evaluated in this study.

More broadly, the goals of this study can therefore be stated as follows:

  1. Do precipitating cumulus clouds exhibit a robust power-law relationship between R and LWP and Nd as in the case of stratocumulus?

  2. Can the time-integrated precipitation be expressed in terms of LWP, Nd, and cloud lifetime?

  3. Can these relationships be used to evaluate the dependence of R on Nd (also known as precipitation susceptibility)?

  4. What is the relationship between precipitation susceptibility and precipitation efficiency (PE)?

The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 contains a brief summary of the LES and the microphysics model and describes the case and the numerical experiment design. Section 3 presents results from five numerical simulations. Sections 4 and 5 discuss and summarize the results.

2. Model description

The model used in this study is the same as that in Jiang et al. (2009), and the major components are therefore described only briefly. It is the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS; version 6.0) coupled to an explicit bin-resolving microphysical model (Feingold et al. 1996; Stevens et al. 1996). Warm rain processes, including activation, condensation/evaporation, collision–coalescence, and sedimentation, are solved using the method of moments based on Tzivion et al. (1987). Note that the raindrop breakup process is not included in the results shown here. The importance of breakup was tested following Feingold et al. (1988) in a simulation for clean aerosol conditions where the effect of breakup would be expected to be a maximum because of the higher likelihood of large drop formation. The results including and excluding breakup are statistically the same and therefore we neglect breakup in subsequent results. Droplet activation is based on the prognosed supersaturation field, and an assumed aerosol size distribution and composition (80% ammonium sulfate; 20% insoluble). Because this study is less concerned with the details of the relationship between Na and Nd, this was deemed sufficient.

a. Initial sounding

A thermodynamic sounding composited by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study (GCSS) boundary layer working group (available online at http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/rico) and based on soundings from the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field experiment (Rauber et al. 2007) was used in Jiang et al. (2009). The composite sounding represents a relatively undisturbed trade wind cumulus regime with light precipitation. The area-averaged rainfall rate derived from radar data ranges from 1.2 to 7.2 mm day−1 (Nuijens et al. 2009; Snodgrass et al. 2009), whereas the LES initialized using the composite sounding produced an area-averaged surface rainfall of 1 mm day−1 under clean aerosol conditions (Jiang et al. 2009). The combination of the relatively stable initial sounding and the cancellation of the imposed large-scale radiative cooling and subsidence above 2250 m limits the growth of the cloud layer and inhibits precipitation.

To create an environment that is more conducive to convection and to understand how the precipitating population of clouds responds to variations in aerosol concentration, the composite sounding is modified as shown in Fig. 1. The model domain top is extended to 6 km, the initial potential temperature is 1.15 K km−1 less stable than the composite profile between 2 and 4 km, and the initial total water mixing ratio rt profile is moistened by 1.6 g kg−1 between 2 and 4 km. These profiles are similar to the initial profiles observed on 19 January 2005 during the RICO campaign. The large-scale tendencies of potential temperature and moisture and the surface forcing used in this study are similar to those used in Jiang et al. (2009).

b. Numerical experiments

Five three-dimensional (3D) simulations were performed, as summarized in Table 1, with initial aerosol concentrations Na of 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500 cm−3. The simulations were run for 12 h, but only the output from the last 9 h was analyzed. The domain size was 25.6 km × 25.6 km × 6 km with the horizontal grid spacing Δx = Δy = 100 m and the vertical grid spacing Δz = 40 m up to 4 km and vertically stretched thereafter with a stretch factor of 1.035. Lateral boundaries are cyclic in both the east–west and north–south directions. A time step of 2 s was used for all simulations. Note that the horizontal domain size meets the minimum benchmark for the development of deeper convection as suggested by Petch (2006), because it allows representation of the mesoscale. The simulations were performed on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Earth System Research Laboratory’s high performance computer using 64 total 2.66-GHZ Intel Xeon processors.

c. Analysis of model output

1) Tracking clouds

During the course of the 12-h simulations, a population comprising several thousands of clouds is generated (Table 1, column 3 lists the number of clouds tracked; see below for definition). The method of identifying an individual cloud and calculation of its lifetime is described in Jiang et al. (2006). Briefly, LWP is calculated in each column. An individual cloud is identified if a distinct cluster of contiguous columns all meet the cloudy-column criterion (in this case, LWP > 20 g m−2). The projected area of these columns is defined as the cloud area and represents an individual cloud. The minimum number of columns considered to constitute a cloud is two, provided both columns meet the prescribed criterion. Cloud lifetimes are calculated for individual clouds from the time that they meet the definition of cloud until the time that they no longer do so. The basis for calculations is a model output sampling time of 1 min.

2) Averaging method

Individual clouds are tracked through their lifetimes and their relevant variables such as LWP, Nd (averaged over the cloud depth), surface precipitation rate Rsfc, cloud-base precipitation rate Rzb (assumed for simplicity to be at 600 m above the surface), and the precipitation rate averaged over cloud depth R are averaged over the cloudy area and over their lifetimes. Additionally, at each sampling time, the maximum values of the corresponding variables of interest are also recorded for individual clouds and then averaged over their lifetime (referred to as cloud-lifetime-averaged maxima); they are labeled as ϕmax, where ϕ represents the variable of interest. Each data point plotted in the following sections derives from individual clouds, and averaging and sampling is performed as discussed above, unless otherwise mentioned. Data in the time series plots are treated differently, as stated in the text and figure caption.

3) Precipitating clouds

The precipitating clouds are defined throughout this study as R, averaged over cloudy region and lifetime for individual clouds greater than 0.5 mm day−1 and LWP greater than 100 g m−2. The same criteria are applied to Rmax and LWPmax. Different threshold values used to define the precipitating clouds were tested using the surface precipitation rate (results are reported in Table 5 and in section 4d).

3. Simulation results

a. Time series

To illustrate the temporal evolution of various cloud parameters derived from the model output, time series of LWP (averaged only over columns that have LWP > 20 g m−2), cloud fraction (the fraction of vertical columns that have LWC greater than 0.05 g m−3), domain-averaged surface precipitation rate Rsfc, and cloud-top maximum zt,max and cloud-base minimum zb,min are plotted in Fig. 2. The terms zt,max and zb,min are the highest and lowest cloud top and base in the domain, respectively, but their difference should not be interpreted as a proxy for cloud depth; rather, the domain-averaged cloud depth is on the order of 600 m. For clarity, only the Na = 100, 300, and 500 cm−1 results are plotted. The variables in the other two simulations (200 and 400 cm−1) are generally intermediate to the others. Figure 2 shows that the clean simulation (100 cm−3) has the highest LWP, whereas the polluted simulation (500 cm−3) has the lowest LWP. The buildup of LWP in the clean simulation prior to each heavier Rsfc episode shows the strong correlation between LWP and Rsfc. The fairly distinct differences between LWP for clean and polluted cases prompted further in-depth analysis of these simulations. Profiles of relative humidity, equivalent potential temperature, and vapor fluxes (not shown) reveal the following interesting features: 1) In the clean simulation, the evaporation of precipitation establishes a cooler and moister subcloud layer; the moister air maintains a lower cloud base, and higher vapor flux at cloud base relative to the more polluted cases. 2) In the polluted simulations, the increased evaporation of liquid water near cloud top results in more moistening that promotes higher cloud tops relative to the clean simulation; nevertheless, maximum cloud-top heights are highest in the clean case (Fig. 2d). 3) On average, both cloud base and cloud top are shifted upward in the polluted case (not shown); thus, entrainment of environmental air tends to dilute the polluted clouds more than the clean clouds.

These results paint a somewhat different and more complex picture from what might have been expected based on precipitation losses (and associated stabilization) and preconditioning arguments alone. The rain produced by the clean clouds is insufficient to weaken convective development or significantly remove LWP. More effective preconditioning in the case of the polluted clouds is not strong enough to generate deeper clouds with higher LWP than the clean clouds.

Aerosol has the reverse effect on cloud fraction; the heavier Rsfc produced after 3.5 h in the 100 cm−3 simulation reduces cloud fraction significantly. On average, Rsfc is about 3 mm day−1 in the 100 cm−3 simulation, only about 0.5 mm day−1 in the 300 cm−3 simulation, and negligible in the most polluted (500 cm−3) simulation. The average R from the cleanest simulation falls well in the midrange of observations (1.2–7.2 mm day−1; Nuijens et al. 2009; Snodgrass et al. 2009). The ZR relationships are calculated from the modeled drop size distributions in two ways: (i) based on cloud- and lifetime-averaged Z and R for each individual cloud, where R ≥ 0.11 mm h−1 (roughly equivalent to Z ≥ 7 dBZ), and (ii) based on individual cloudy columns where R is greater than 0.11 mm h−1. The first method yields Z = 557R2.35, and the second yields Z = 66.7R1.62, compared to RICO observations Z = 88.7R1.50 (Snodgrass et al. 2009) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) ZR relationship Z = 148R1.55 (Nuijens et al. 2009). When comparing R converted from each ZR relationship at Z = 10 dBZ, the precipitation rate in this study is 23% lower than that of Snodgrass et al. and 6% higher than that of Nuijens et al. for the first method and 32% higher than Snodgrass et al. and 76% higher than Nuijens et al. for the second method. Differences of this magnitude are not atypical for rain rates derived from empirical ZR relationships.

The lowest cloud base is steady and located around 500 m over the time period shown. The highest cloud top fluctuates a fair amount, reflecting the variability in the strength of convection over the domain, but experiences a gradual increase from 3.5 to 4.5 km because of the imposed large-scale moistening above 3 km and drying below in the modeled environment. This added moisture promotes deeper cloud growth over time.

b. Cloud size, depth, and precipitation

The cloud size distribution n(a) of a cumulus population is defined as the number of clouds per area range (a; a + da). We only consider clouds larger than 300 m in diameter (defined as the square root of cloud area a). As shown in earlier studies, n(a) follows a negative power law (Fig. 3a), indicating a rapid decrease in the number of clouds with increasing size (e.g., Cahalan and Joseph 1989; Neggers et al. 2003; Zhao and Di Girolamo 2007; Koren et al. 2008). The size distributions are affected to some extent by Na; the negative slope of the power law increases as Na increases, as does the total number of clouds. Polluted cloud populations therefore have many more small clouds than clean cloud populations in accord with Xue and Feingold (2006) and Jiang et al. (2009). This same trend also holds for smaller clouds (<300-m diameter; not shown) However, for diameters greater than 1300 m, the clean simulations (100 and 200 cm−3) produce more large clouds.

Clouds with diameters of 500 m contribute very little to the cloud- and lifetime-averaged rainfall (Fig. 3b), in spite of their ubiquity (Fig. 3a). The value of R increases steeply as cloud diameter exceeds 500 m, and continues to increase to the maximum value at the largest cloud size. The largest contribution to R is also from the deepest clouds, in accord with observations (e.g., Short and Nakamura 2000) and with the fact that clouds tend to have a fairly constant aspect ratio (Benner and Curry 1998). The most polluted clouds (Na > 300 cm−3) do not grow as deep or as large as the clean clouds; as expected (e.g., Warner 1968), they produce very little rain (Fig. 3c).

It has been proposed that, by delaying the rain process and allowing for more evaporation in the free troposphere, an increase in the aerosol may allow clouds to deepen, thus offsetting the precipitation suppression (Stevens and Seifert 2008). For the simulations with lower aerosol concentrations (Na ≤ 300 cm−3), Fig. 3c shows that clouds do indeed grow slightly deeper with increasing Na so that some offsetting of precipitation suppression is likely occurring. Interestingly, the deepening effect does not exist at Na > 300 cm−3 so that other factors are clearly controlling cloud depth. It should be noted that there are only one or two clouds at these high cloud depths, so a general conclusion should not be drawn based on the small sample statistics.

Caution should be taken when comparing these results with observations made during RICO. First, the range of aerosol conditions during RICO was much narrower (50–200 cm−3; e.g., Hudson and Mishra 2007); second, the meteorological conditions were highly variable (e.g., Nuijens et al. 2009) and included confounding (positive) correlations between meteorological factors such as wind speed, cloud depth, and aerosol loading.

c. Frequency of occurrence of cloud lifetime

The frequency of occurrence of cloud lifetime is plotted for three simulations based on tracking thousands of individual clouds as discussed in section 2c(1) (Fig. 4). A geometrically increasing bin size is used to reduce the sampling “noise” at longer lifetimes where the number of samples is small. The general trend in the distribution is very similar among the three simulations (Fig. 4a). The frequencies in the other two simulations (200 and 400 cm−1) are generally intermediate to the others and are not shown for clarity. The progressive increase in the number of clouds in association with higher Na (Table 1, column 3) is reflected in the higher occurrences in Fig. 4a. The majority of clouds have lifetimes of 30 min or shorter. Only a few tens of clouds have lifetimes longer than 60 min.

Figure 4b relates cloud lifetime to cloud area, and shows the average cloud lifetime within each size bin. Clouds with sizes larger than 2000 m (diameter) are placed in the last bin to improve the sample statistics. On average there is a monotonic increase in cloud lifetime with increasing cloud size. For clouds with diameters less than 500 m and lifetime shorter than 30 min, there is no clear aerosol effect on lifetime, in accord with Jiang et al. (2006), but for the subset of large clouds, polluted clouds tend to live longer than clean clouds. Thus, although the cleaner conditions produce the largest and deepest clouds (Figs. 2d, 3a,c), the precipitation associated with these clouds has the effect of reducing cloud lifetime relative to their nonprecipitating counterparts.

d. Relationship between R, LWP, Nd, and cloud lifetime

For stratocumulus clouds, the precipitation rate R is often assumed to scale with LWP (or the cloud depth) and Nd as follows:
i1520-0469-67-11-3525-e1
Equation (1) has been derived from observations (e.g., Pawlowska and Brenguier 2003; Comstock et al. 2004; vanZanten et al. 2005) and modeling (e.g., Geoffroy et al. 2008; Feingold and Siebert 2009) of stratocumulus clouds. The suitability of Eq. (1) to describe precipitation in cumulus clouds has not been thoroughly evaluated, except for a preliminary study by Mechem and Kogan (2008). This is now investigated using the model-generated population of cumulus clouds. At this point, we note that aerosol effects on R are expressed via Nd to avoid addressing the sometimes complex relationship between Nd and Na.

Figure 5 shows a scatterplot of Rsfc versus LWP for three different initial Na. As expected, Rsfc is positively correlated with LWP and negatively correlated with Na (or Nd); Rsfc is negligible for the simulations initialized with Na of 400 and 500 cm−3. For simplicity, it is now assumed that Eq. (1) also holds true for cumulus clouds. In the subsequent analysis, only clouds with R > 0.5 mm day−1 and cloud area and lifetime-averaged LWP > 100 g m−2 (precipitating clouds) are included in the analysis. Thus, the number of clouds (Table 2, column 6) is much smaller than that listed in Table 1 (column 3). The coefficients of α and β are derived from multivariate linear regression fits to the logarithms of the model output of R, LWP, and Nd, and Rreg (the regression-generated R) is calculated using Eq. (1) and compared to the model R. The various values of precipitation rate from Rsfc, Rzb, and R (where the overbar indicates an average over cloud depth) are all evaluated for their performance.

Equation (1) is further amended to incorporate cloud lifetime as follows:
i1520-0469-67-11-3525-e2
where , and tc denotes cloud lifetime. Similar to the tests of Eq. (1), and are also evaluated. Associated α, β, and γ values from Eqs. (1) and (2) regressions are listed in Table 2. The validation and comparison results are shown in Fig. 6. Because the differences in the α and β values are small among R, Rzb, and Rsfc regressions, only the Rzb and Rsfc and the Izb and Isfc are presented in Fig. 6. Figures 6a,b show significant scattering between the model-generated Rzb or Rsfc and their respective regression fits Rreg. The best fit using the multiple linear-fit method is plotted as a solid line for each case. Strong correlations are shown with correlation coefficients r ranging from 0.84 to 0.88 for the R regression and from 0.95 to 0.97 for the I regression (Table 2, column 5). The regression performs significantly better for the time-integrated rain amount I (Figs. 6c,d).

The α and β values (Table 2) are very similar, regardless of whether the regression is performed using R, Rzb, or Rsfc, except that the number of samples is less at the surface, reflecting that evaporation in the subcloud layer has reduced the number of samples that meet the cloud criterion. The average α (Table 2, rows 1–3) is 2.45, and β is −1.15. The corresponding parameters derived for stratocumulus clouds are 1.5 and −1.0 (vanZanten et al. 2005), 1.6 and −0.67 (Feingold and Siebert 2009), 1.75 and −1.75 (Comstock et al. 2004), and 2.0 and −1.0 (Pawlowska and Brenguier 2003) for α and β, respectively. The sensitivity to LWP is stronger in this study than in published studies of stratocumulus clouds, whereas the sensitivity to Nd falls in the middle of those of stratocumulus clouds. Including tc in the regression in Eq. (2) reduces both the α2 and β2 (absolute) values slightly (Table 2, rows 4–6). It should be noted that, for stratocumulus, significant differences in regression coefficients can emanate from the definition of the physical parameters (e.g., how R and height are calculated) and measurement biases (in situ versus remote sensing; Brenguier and Wood 2009). In addition, the absolute magnitude of LWP is much higher in some of the deeper cumulus clouds, so small changes in α could a have significant impact.

Parameterizations of the form of Eqs. (1) and (2) assume that LWP, Nd, and tc are independent, whereas we have already seen that this is not the case. Correlation coefficients r between LWP and tc, Nd and tc, and LWP and Nd are 0.52, 0.19, and 0.26, respectively (calculated from the same set of data used to derive the α2 and β2 values). The higher correlation coefficient between LWP and lifetime confirms that higher LWP is generally related to longer cloud lifetime. These correlations indicate that the parameters in Eqs. (1) and (2) are not independent, and their primary advantage is that they are directly measurable.

e. Precipitation susceptibility

Now that the relationship between R, LWP, and Nd has been established, other quantities such as precipitation susceptibility can be estimated. Precipitation susceptibility So (Feingold and Siebert 2009; Sorooshian et al. 2009, 2010) is a useful metric in that it represents the sensitivity of precipitation to changes in Nd,
i1520-0469-67-11-3525-e3
Substituting R from Eq. (1), one has
i1520-0469-67-11-3525-e4
where dln(LWP)/dln(Nd) represents the slope of a plot of LWP versus Nd on a log–log scale and is referred to as “slope” in Table 3. To derive So from the model output, data was binned at irregular increments in LWPmax to get similar numbers of samples in each bin. To be consistent, Nd,max and Rmax are also used in the regression. The reason for choosing LWPmax over LWP is that LWPmax covers a wider range and Rmax provides a larger number of samples than LWP and R provide. Note that calculations of So were also done using the cloud area- and lifetime-averaged LWP, Nd, and R, and a similar dependence of So with respect to LWP was obtained (not shown). Within each LWPmax bin, a multivariate linear regression fit is performed, and the associated variables (α, β, and slope) are derived (Table 3). The So values shown in Table 3 are calculated using Eq. (4) and can be derived from the negative slope of a plot of R versus Nd on a log–log scale with similar values (not shown). Values of So shown in Table 3 are statistically significant at the 95% level based on a one-tailed, t-statistics test. The correlation coefficients between log(R) and log(Nd) are in the range of 0.33–0.91 in each LWP bin.

As shown in Table 3, the differences in fit parameters between the calculations using Rsfc and Rzb are small for any given LWPmax interval. Evaporation in the subcloud layer reduces the total number of clouds in Rsfc from Rzb regressions by about 19% at the lowest three LWPmax bins, and the total number of clouds is similar in the higher LWPmax bins.

The So increases with LWPmax and reaches a maximum between 1100 g m−2 < LWPmax < 1400 g m−2 (Table 3, column 5) and decreases thereafter. The general trend in So is similar to that shown in Feingold and Siebert (2009) and Sorooshian et al. (2009, 2010), except that the LWP values are different because of different averaging methodologies. This behavior will be discussed further in section 4a.

f. Precipitation efficiency

The concept of precipitation susceptibility has direct links to the more commonly used metric of PE. In the case of PE, the accumulated Rsfc over the area that experiences rain is divided by the volume integral of the total amount of water condensed over the lifetime of the cloud (e.g., Flossmann and Pruppacher 1988),
i1520-0469-67-11-3525-e5
where RV = ∫Rsfc dA dt is the total volume of rainwater accumulated at the surface over the cloud lifetime, A is the area experiencing rain, and MV is the total volume of condensed water accumulated over the cloud lifetime. PE therefore does not include a term related to drop concentration, although lifetime is inherently included in both the numerator and the denominator. To explore this further, one can perform regressions of the form
i1520-0469-67-11-3525-e6
where Eq. (6) is a time- and volume-integrated form of Eq. (1). Figure 7a displays the model output using the same dataset that generated Fig. 6 and shows the strong correlation (r = 0.93) between the LES output and regression [Eq. (6)]. Table 2 shows that values of α3 and β3 are very similar to those from the regressions in Eqs. (1) and (2). Taking the natural logarithm of both sides of Eq. (6) and differentiating with respect to Nd, one can derive an expression for susceptibility analogous to Eq. (4) for time- and volume-integrated quantities.
Furthermore, substituting Eq. (6) into Eq. (5), PE can be calculated as
i1520-0469-67-11-3525-e7
which has similar form to Eqs. (1) and (6) and now explicitly depends on Nd. Figure 7b shows a scatterplot of PELES calculated directly from Eq. (5) using LES output that implicitly includes the effects of Nd, as a function of PEREG calculated based on the right-hand side of Eq. (7). The scattering is larger, and the correlation is weaker (r = 0.46) in Fig. 7b compared to Fig. 7a. Nevertheless the analysis points to the validity of the regression. Equation (7), with its explicit representation of Nd and its clear connections to So, is therefore proposed as an additional avenue for exploring PE.

PE is between 1% and 10%. These values are smaller than the 20%–30% range calculated based on the ratio of latent heat flux in the cloud layer to the surface value for the trade wind cumulus regime off the coast of Hawaii (Rauber et al. 1996) and in thunderstorm studies (Fankhauser 1988). PE is about 12% in simulations of a single warm cumulus cloud in a two-dimensional model (Flossmann and Pruppacher 1988) using the same definition for PE as given in Eq. (5). The rain intensity in that study was substantially higher, and the lifetime of the single cloud was 64 min.

Seifert and Stevens (2010) used a 1D model output to suggest a link between PE, autoconversion time scale, and cloud lifetime. We attempted a similar analysis based on the LES output but could not find a clear relationship between these parameters.

4. Discussion

a. Nonmonotonic behavior of So

The behavior of So shown in Table 3 and Fig. 8a can be divided into three major regimes: small, intermediate, and large LWPmax. The relative insensitivity of So to LWP at the lowest LWPmax follows from the fact that small, short-lived clouds produce little precipitation regardless of the aerosol conditions. For LWPmax (100 g m−2 < LWPmax < 1400 g m−2), So increases monotonically with increasing LWPmax as the precipitation process becomes more efficient and increases in Nd have a stronger potential to suppress collision–coalescence. At larger LWPmax (>1400 g m−2), So decreases with increasing LWP as the cloud switches from an autoconversion (Nd dependent) to an accretion (Nd independent) dominated process in accord with Wood et al. (2009). This qualitative behavior is also seen in the study of shallow cumulus clouds using satellite data (Sorooshian et al. 2009, 2010), in a parcel model (Feingold and Siebert 2009), and for LES of weakly precipitating cumulus (Sorooshian et al. 2010). The LWP values associated with inflection points and maxima remain uncertain and are likely related to cloud type. They are also highly sensitive to the methodology applied in calculating R, Nd, and LWP.

b. So controlling parameters

The So quantifies the sensitivity of precipitation to changes in aerosol. It identifies which types of clouds are most susceptible to aerosol changes. The dependence of So on LWP and other fundamental microphysical processes such as condensation, autoconversion, and accretion are now evaluated. Comparisons with other studies are made, as appropriate.

The original rationale for the choice of LWP as a controlling factor for So (Feingold and Siebert 2009) was that LWP can be viewed as a bulk cloud property that represents the macrophysical potential for the cloud to precipitate. The influence of microphysical properties then appears via Nd or Na. This is analogous to albedo susceptibility, where LWP represents the macrophysical potential for a cloud to reflect solar radiation and Nd represents the microphysical influence. Recently, Wood et al. (2009) and Seifert and Stevens (2010) have explored similar susceptibility and precipitation efficiency ideas in terms of other controlling parameters such as the ratio of the condensation to rain time scales τcond/τdriz and the ratio of accretion to autoconversion rates Aaccr/Aauto. These ratios give a rough estimate of the water budget in clouds. The ratio τcond/τdriz represents the time scale for generation of water through condensation relative to that for depletion through precipitation. Similarly, Aaccr/Aauto estimates the rate at which precipitation depletes cloud water relative to the rate at which it can be produced by conversion of cloud water to rainwater.

To place our work in the context of these studies, we follow suit using the LES output as the source of these time scales and accretion rates. We note that, because of differences among the models, particularly with regard to the representation of the dynamics (LES versus simpler dynamical frameworks), quantitative comparison is not always feasible. Here, So is plotted as a function of τcond/τdriz (Fig. 8b) and Aaccr/Aauto in the corresponding LWPmax bins (Fig. 8c). The term is calculated as 1/rl × (drl/dt) and τdriz = rl/(Aaccr + Aauto), where rl is the cloud liquid water mixing ratio. The terms Aauto and Aaccr are directly calculated from the bin microphysics algorithms in the model, and they are processed and averaged in the same manner as described in section 2c(2). It is striking that So exhibits nonmonotonic response to all three variables. Closer examination reveals that the ratios of τcond/τdriz and Aaccr/Aauto are both positively correlated with LWP (Fig. 9). The correlation between Aaccr/Aauto and LWP is stronger (r = 0.42) than that of τcond/τdriz (r = 0.16). The stronger correlation between Aaccr/Aauto and LWP along with the similar behavior of So in Figs. 8a,c suggests that the transition from an autoconversion-dominated regime to an accretion-dominated regime is well reflected in the LWP term. Intuitively, at low LWP, the ratio of accretion rates to autoconversion rates is small, because a cloud with low LWP has not generated many rain drops, and at high LWP the reverse is true. Similarly, a cloud in its formative stages will have small LWP and therefore small τcond/τdriz, because microphysics is dominated by condensation and τdriz is relatively large compared to τcond.

Also of note is that, whereas the LES results shown here, as well as those presented in Sorooshian et al. (2009), show a distinct maximum in So, the analogous study in Wood et al. (2009) shows So decreasing monotonically with increasing τcond/τdriz or Aaccr/Aauto. At this stage, it is unclear whether these differences are due to differences in model dynamics or to the parameter space explored by the different studies.

Figures 8 and 9 demonstrate the usefulness of LWP as a parameter controlling So and its relationship with more fundamental microphysical processes. From a pragmatic point of view, LWP is much easier to measure than τcond/τdriz or Aaccr/Aauto and therefore should also facilitate in situ and remote sensing evaluation of So (e.g., Sorooshian et al. 2009, 2010).

c. Generality of relationships

The generality of the relationships derived from the simulations is now evaluated by comparing results for the two different initial meteorological conditions shown in Fig. 1. The same regressions were performed using the model output based on the standard GCSS RICO case (solid lines in Fig. 1; Jiang et al. 2009). Table 4 summarizes the comparison. To ensure a sufficient number of samples, the Rmax is used in the regression where R is the cloud-layer-averaged precipitation rate and Rmax is the cloud-lifetime-averaged maximum R [for details, see section 2c(2)]. All data with LWP greater than 100 g m−2 are included to produce the top two rows in Table 4. The β values for both these studies are close to 1, with those from Jiang et al. (2009) being somewhat lower. The value of α derived from Jiang et al. (2009) is about half of that in the current study. Based on the Table 3 breakdown of the dependence of β on LWP, it appears that the primary reason for the difference in β is due to the lower LWP regime in Jiang et al. (2009). Although α exhibits significant variability as a function of LWP in Table 3 across the entire LWP range, values of α are less than or equal to 1 in the lowest two LWP bins in Table 3. To test this hypothesis, we selected a subset of model output for cases with LWP in the range of 100–500 g m−2 (bottom two rows in Table 4). Both this study and Jiang et al. (2009) now yield similar α and β values. This exercise provides us with confidence that the derived relationships are consistent when clouds of similar types are analyzed.

d. Thresholds for definition of precipitating clouds

The precipitating clouds have been defined throughout this study as R (averaged over cloudy region and lifetime for individual clouds) greater than 0.5 mm day−1 and LWP greater than 100 g m−2. Lower threshold values were tested using the regression of Rsfc shown in Table 2 as an example. The test results (Table 5) have shown that the correlation coefficients decrease slightly as the threshold values were lowered, but the regression parameters have been relatively insensitive to these choices.

5. Summary

Populations of cumulus clouds exposed to different aerosol concentrations are modeled using large-eddy simulation to explore the effect of aerosol (via its influence on drop concentration) on the precipitation, precipitation efficiency, and precipitation susceptibility of cumulus clouds. The model is initialized using a modified form of the sounding composited from the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field experiment soundings (Rauber et al. 2007). The modified sounding is moister and less stable, and it promotes deeper clouds and more precipitation. The major results are summarized in the following.

Clouds with diameters less than 500 m produce little precipitation (Fig. 3b), although they contribute significantly to cloud fraction and cloud reflectance (e.g., Koren et al. 2008; Jiang et al. 2009). In moderately polluted conditions (200 cm−3Na ≤ 300 cm−3), clouds can grow as large and as deep as in clean conditions (Na = 100 cm−3) but produce less rain (Fig. 3b). Although the larger/deeper clouds occur infrequently (Fig. 3a), they generate most of the precipitation [Fig. 3b; see also Short and Nakamura (2000)].

The majority of clouds have lifetimes less than 30 min. For small, short-lived clouds, lifetimes are insensitive to aerosol conditions (Fig. 4b) in accord with Jiang et al. (2006). Considering the subset of the largest clouds, polluted clouds tend to have longer lifetimes because of precipitation reduction. One caveat is that, for the most polluted conditions studied here (Na = 500 cm−3), the largest clouds do not grow to be as big or to live as long as their moderately polluted counterparts (Fig. 4b).

Precipitation rate R (Figs. 6a,b) can be reasonably well represented by a power-law function of LWP and Nd. The respective powers for LWP and Nd are of similar magnitude to those of observational and LES studies of stratocumulus clouds, despite the differences in characteristics and morphology of the two types of clouds.

The time-integrated precipitation rate (Figs. 6c,d) is well represented by a power-law function of LWP, Nd, and cloud lifetime. We note that these three parameters are not independent variables, because LWP and Nd are weakly correlated (correlation coefficient is 0.26) and LWP and cloud lifetime are more strongly correlated (correlation coefficient is 0.55). The advantage of choosing these variables is their measurability.

The dependence of precipitation susceptibility So [Eq. (4)] of the cumulus clouds on LWP reflects two distinct cloud regimes divided by small to intermediate LWP and large LWP (Fig. 8a and Table 3). As in Feingold and Siebert (2009) and Sorooshian et al. (2009, 2010), So exhibits nonmonotonic behavior and reaches its maximum at intermediate LWP values. Analysis of So with respect to other controlling parameters, such as the ratio of autoconversion to accretion rates, yields a similar result (Fig. 8c), because the ratio of autoconversion to accretion rates is strongly correlated to LWP.

Precipitation efficiency (PE) is derived from the relationship between R, LWP, and Nd and is compared to other studies (e.g., Flossmann and Pruppacher 1988). The connections between precipitation efficiency and So are highlighted, and the advantage of explicit representation of Nd in the modified PE equation is noted.

LES provides a useful tool for understanding the effect of aerosol on processes associated with precipitation. The knowledge gained from this study can be tested against field observations or remote sensing data, as in Sorooshian et al. (2010). Various parameters derived from the relationship between precipitation and microphysical variables may be useful in parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in large-scale models. For example, probability distribution functions of LWP, Nd, and cloud lifetime derived from the simulations presented here, as well as those in Jiang et al. (2009) for weakly precipitating trade cumulus, could be used to represent the probability distribution of R for the trade cumulus cloud regime without explicitly relying on poorly resolved convection and cloud processes at the large scale.

Acknowledgments

HJ and GF were funded by NOAA’s Climate Goal. AS acknowledges support from an ONR YIP award. The authors acknowledge the excellent support of NOAA’s High Performance Computing Center at the Earth System Research Laboratory and comments and suggestions by the anonymous reviewers.

REFERENCES

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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
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    • Search Google Scholar
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.

Initial profiles of (a) potential temperature θ and (b) total water mixing ratio rt from GCSS intercomparison of RICO (solid line) and as modified for this study (dotted line).

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.

Time series of (a) LWP, (b) cloud fraction, (c) domain-averaged surface precipitation rate R, and (d) minimum cloud-base Zb,min and maximum cloud-top Zt,max (see text for definitions) for initial aerosol concentration Na of 100 (solid line), 300 (dashed line), and 500 cm−3 (dashed–dotted line).

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.

(a) Cloud size distribution n(a) with respect to cloud area a. The cloud diameter (the square root of a) is labeled at top. (b) Cloud-averaged precipitation rate R as a function of cloud area a and (c) cloud-averaged precipitation rate R as a function of average maximum cloud depth [for definitions, see section 2c(2)]. Line types are indicated in the legend, and b is the slope from the negative power law using least-absolute-deviation fits to the model output.

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.

(a) Frequency of occurrence of cloud lifetime and (b) lifetime as a function of cloud area a. Line types are labeled in the legend.

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.

Scatterplots of surface precipitation rate Rsfc vs LWP for three different initial Na. Symbols are labeled in the legend.

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 6.
Fig. 6.

Scatterplots of (a) the precipitation rate Rreg vs Rzb, (b) Rreg vs Rsfc, (c) cloud-lifetime-integrated precipitation rate Ireg vs Izb, and (d) Ireg vs Isfc [Rreg and Ireg are given by Eqs. (1)(2) and Table 2]. Solid lines are the best fits using a multiple linear regression fit for each case, and r is the correlation coefficient.

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 7.
Fig. 7.

Scatterplots of (a) the volume precipitation rate produced by Eq. (6) vs that from the LES and (b) PE generated by Eq. (7) vs that from the LES. Solid lines are the best fits using a multiple linear regression fit for each case. Fit coefficients are given in the y expressions in each panel, and r is the correlation coefficient.

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 8.
Fig. 8.

(a) Precipitation susceptibility So vs LWPbin, (b) So vs τcond/τdriz, and (c) So vs Aaccr/Aauto. The filled circles denote the So values derived from LWPmax binning labeled as LWPbin. The terms Aauto and Aaccr are the rates of autoconversion and accretion, respectively. The term τcond is the microphysical condensation time scale, τdriz[rl/(Aaccr + Aauto)] represents a time scale for rain production, and rl denotes liquid water mixing ratio.

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Fig. 9.
Fig. 9.

(a) The ratio Aaccr/Aauto vs LWPmax and (b) τcond/τdriz vs LWPmax. See Fig. 8 caption and text for definitions of various variables. LWPmax is the cloud-lifetime-averaged maximum value [for details, see section 2c(2)]. Symbols and colors represent the different Na: blue filled circles (100 cm−3), green diamonds (200 cm−3), red crosses (300 cm−3), gray triangles (400 cm−3), and purple squares (500 cm−3).

Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67, 11; 10.1175/2010JAS3484.1

Table 1.

Description of numerical experiments. The term Na denotes the initial aerosol concentration, and the number of clouds is accumulated over 9 h.

Table 1.
Table 2.

Coefficients of multiple linear regression for R > 0.5 mm day−1 and LWP > 100 g m−2. The r is the correlation coefficient between the RLES and RREG (Fig. 6); R is the precipitation rate averaged over cloud depth; Rzb is the cloud-base precipitation rate; Rsfc is the surface precipitation rate (mm day−1); ; tc denotes cloud lifetime; RV = ∫Rsfc dA dt; A is the area experiencing rain; PE = RV/MV is the precipitation efficiency; and MV is the total volume of condensed water accumulated over the cloud lifetime.

Table 2.
Table 3.

Precipitation susceptibility So over a range of LWPmax bins and for all Rsfc (Rzb) > 0.5 mm day−1. The slope = dln(LWPmax)/dln(Nd,max); So = −α × slope − β [Eq. (4)]; LWPmax is cloud-lifetime-averaged maximum [see section 2c(2) for details]; Rsfc and Rzb are cloud-lifetime-averaged maxima; and the subscript max is not written for clarity.

Table 3.
Table 4.

Comparison of regression to different meteorological conditions. The r is the correlation coefficient between the RLES and RREG (Fig. 6); LWP is in g m−2; R is the cloud-depth-averaged precipitation rate in mm day−1; and Rmax is the cloud-lifetime-averaged maximum of R [see section 2c(2) for details].

Table 4.
Table 5.

Sensitivity test of threshold values used to define the precipitating clouds. The r is the correlation coefficient between the RLES and RREG (Fig. 6) and Rsfc is the surface precipitation rate.

Table 5.
Save
  • Benner, C. T., and J. A. Curry, 1998: Characteristics of small tropical cumulus clouds and their impact on the environment. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 2875328767.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berry, E. X., 1968: Modification of the warm rain process. Proc. First Conf. on Weather Modification, Albany, NY, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81–85.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bony, S., and J-L. Dufresne, 2005: Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 , L20806. doi:10.1029/2005GL023851.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brenguier, J-L., and R. Wood, 2009: Observational strategies from the micro- to mesoscale. Clouds in the Perturbed Climate System: Their Relationship to Energy Balance, Atmospheric Dynamics, and Precipitation, J. Heintzenberg, and R. J. Charlson, Eds., MIT Press, 487–510.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cahalan, R. F., and J. H. Joseph, 1989: Fractal statistics of cloud fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117 , 261272.

  • Comstock, K. K., R. Wood, S. E. Yuter, and C. S. Bretherton, 2004: Reflectivity and rain rate in and below drizzling stratocumulus. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130 , 28912918. doi:10.1256/qj.03.187.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fankhauser, J. C., 1988: Estimates of thunderstorm precipitation efficiency from field measurements in CCOPE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116 , 663684.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Feingold, G., and H. Siebert, 2009: Cloud-aerosol interactions from the micro to the cloud scale. Clouds in the Perturbed Climate System: Their Relationship to Energy Balance, Atmospheric Dynamics, and Precipitation, J. Heintzenberg and R. J. Charlson, Eds., MIT Press, 319–338.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Feingold, G., S. Tzivion, and Z. Levin, 1988: Evolution of raindrop spectra. Part I: Solution to the stochastic collection/breakup equation using the method of moments. J. Atmos. Sci., 45 , 33873399.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Feingold, G., B. Stevens, W. R. Cotton, and A. S. Frisch, 1996: The relationship between drop in-cloud residence time and drizzle production in numerically simulated stratocumulus clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 53 , 11081122.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Flossmann, A. I., and H. R. Pruppacher, 1988: A theoretical study of the wet removal of atmospheric pollutants. Part III: The uptake, redistribution, and deposition of (NH4)2SO4 particles by a convective cloud using a two-dimensional cloud dynamics model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45 , 18571871.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Geoffroy, O., J-L. Brenguier, and I. Sandu, 2008: Relationship between drizzle rate, liquid water path and droplet concentration at the scale of a stratocumulus cloud system. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8 , 46414654.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hudson, J. G., and S. Mishra, 2007: Relationships between CCN and cloud microphysics variations in clean maritime air. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 , L16804. doi:10.1029/2007GL030044.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jiang, H., H. Xue, A. Teller, G. Feingold, and Z. Levin, 2006: Aerosol effects on the lifetime of shallow cumulus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 , L14806. doi:10.1029/2006GL026024.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jiang, H., G. Feingold, and I. Koren, 2009: Effect of aerosol on trade cumulus cloud morphology. J. Geophys. Res., 114 , D11209. doi:10.1029/2009JD011750.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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  • Fig. 1.

    Initial profiles of (a) potential temperature θ and (b) total water mixing ratio rt from GCSS intercomparison of RICO (solid line) and as modified for this study (dotted line).

  • Fig. 2.

    Time series of (a) LWP, (b) cloud fraction, (c) domain-averaged surface precipitation rate R, and (d) minimum cloud-base Zb,min and maximum cloud-top Zt,max (see text for definitions) for initial aerosol concentration Na of 100 (solid line), 300 (dashed line), and 500 cm−3 (dashed–dotted line).

  • Fig. 3.

    (a) Cloud size distribution n(a) with respect to cloud area a. The cloud diameter (the square root of a) is labeled at top. (b) Cloud-averaged precipitation rate R as a function of cloud area a and (c) cloud-averaged precipitation rate R as a function of average maximum cloud depth [for definitions, see section 2c(2)]. Line types are indicated in the legend, and b is the slope from the negative power law using least-absolute-deviation fits to the model output.

  • Fig. 4.

    (a) Frequency of occurrence of cloud lifetime and (b) lifetime as a function of cloud area a. Line types are labeled in the legend.

  • Fig. 5.

    Scatterplots of surface precipitation rate Rsfc vs LWP for three different initial Na. Symbols are labeled in the legend.

  • Fig. 6.

    Scatterplots of (a) the precipitation rate Rreg vs Rzb, (b) Rreg vs Rsfc, (c) cloud-lifetime-integrated precipitation rate Ireg vs Izb, and (d) Ireg vs Isfc [Rreg and Ireg are given by Eqs. (1)(2) and Table 2]. Solid lines are the best fits using a multiple linear regression fit for each case, and r is the correlation coefficient.

  • Fig. 7.

    Scatterplots of (a) the volume precipitation rate produced by Eq. (6) vs that from the LES and (b) PE generated by Eq. (7) vs that from the LES. Solid lines are the best fits using a multiple linear regression fit for each case. Fit coefficients are given in the y expressions in each panel, and r is the correlation coefficient.

  • Fig. 8.

    (a) Precipitation susceptibility So vs LWPbin, (b) So vs τcond/τdriz, and (c) So vs Aaccr/Aauto. The filled circles denote the So values derived from LWPmax binning labeled as LWPbin. The terms Aauto and Aaccr are the rates of autoconversion and accretion, respectively. The term τcond is the microphysical condensation time scale, τdriz[rl/(Aaccr + Aauto)] represents a time scale for rain production, and rl denotes liquid water mixing ratio.

  • Fig. 9.

    (a) The ratio Aaccr/Aauto vs LWPmax and (b) τcond/τdriz vs LWPmax. See Fig. 8 caption and text for definitions of various variables. LWPmax is the cloud-lifetime-averaged maximum value [for details, see section 2c(2)]. Symbols and colors represent the different Na: blue filled circles (100 cm−3), green diamonds (200 cm−3), red crosses (300 cm−3), gray triangles (400 cm−3), and purple squares (500 cm−3).

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