A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
Land Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Paris, France
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Instituto Nacionale de Meteorologi'a, Madrid, Spain
Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, Toulouse, France
Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione Ambiente deU'Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Columbia University, New York, New York
