Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information

Paul A. Hirschberg NOAA/Office of Program Planning and Integration, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Elliot Abrams AccuWeather, Inc., State College, Pennsylvania

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Andrea Bleistein NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, Maryland

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William Bua COMET, UCAR, Boulder, Colorado

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Luca Delle Monache NCAR, Boulder, Colorado

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Thomas W. Dulong NOAA/NWS, Longmont, Colorado

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John E. Gaynor NOAA/OAR/Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Bob Glahn NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Thomas M. Hamill NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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James A. Hansen Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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Douglas C. Hilderbrand NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Ross N. Hoffman Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, Massachusetts

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Betty Hearn Morrow SocResearch Miami, Miami, Florida

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Brenda Philips University of Massachusetts—Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts

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John Sokich NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Neil Stuart NOAA/NWS, Albany, New York

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Online Publication:
01 Dec 2011
Print Publication:
01 Dec 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00073.1
Page(s):
1651–1666
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The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty (the Plan) is summarized. The Plan (available on the AMS website at www.ametsoc.org/boardpges/cwce/docs/BEC/ACUF/2011-02-20-ACUF-Final-Report.pdf) is based on and intended to provide a foundation for implementing recent recommendations regarding forecast uncertainty by the National Research Council (NRC), AMS, and World Meteorological Organization. It defines a vision, strategic goals, roles and respon- sibilities, and an implementation road map to guide the weather and climate enterprise (the Enterprise) toward routinely providing the nation with comprehensive, skillful, reliable, and useful information about the uncertainty of weather, water, and climate (hydrometeorological) forecasts. Examples are provided describing how hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty information can improve decisions and outcomes in various socioeconomic areas. The implementation road map defines objectives and tasks that the four sectors comprising the Enterprise (i.e., government, industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations) should work on in partnership to meet four key, interrelated strategic goals: 1) understand social and physical science aspects of forecast uncertainty; 2) communicate forecast uncertainty information effectively and collaborate with users to assist them in their decision making; 3) generate forecast uncertainty data, products, services, and information; and 4) enable research, development, and operations with necessary information technology and other infrastructure. The Plan endorses the NRC recommendation that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and, in particular, the National Weather Service, should take the lead in motivating and organizing Enterprise resources and expertise in order to reach the Plan's vision and goals and shift the nation successfully toward a greater understanding and use of forecast uncertainty in decision making.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty (the Plan) is summarized. The Plan (available on the AMS website at www.ametsoc.org/boardpges/cwce/docs/BEC/ACUF/2011-02-20-ACUF-Final-Report.pdf) is based on and intended to provide a foundation for implementing recent recommendations regarding forecast uncertainty by the National Research Council (NRC), AMS, and World Meteorological Organization. It defines a vision, strategic goals, roles and respon- sibilities, and an implementation road map to guide the weather and climate enterprise (the Enterprise) toward routinely providing the nation with comprehensive, skillful, reliable, and useful information about the uncertainty of weather, water, and climate (hydrometeorological) forecasts. Examples are provided describing how hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty information can improve decisions and outcomes in various socioeconomic areas. The implementation road map defines objectives and tasks that the four sectors comprising the Enterprise (i.e., government, industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations) should work on in partnership to meet four key, interrelated strategic goals: 1) understand social and physical science aspects of forecast uncertainty; 2) communicate forecast uncertainty information effectively and collaborate with users to assist them in their decision making; 3) generate forecast uncertainty data, products, services, and information; and 4) enable research, development, and operations with necessary information technology and other infrastructure. The Plan endorses the NRC recommendation that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and, in particular, the National Weather Service, should take the lead in motivating and organizing Enterprise resources and expertise in order to reach the Plan's vision and goals and shift the nation successfully toward a greater understanding and use of forecast uncertainty in decision making.

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