NOAA's Future Ensemble-Based Hurricane Forecast Products

Thomas M. Hamill NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado

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Michael J. Brennan National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Barbara Brown Research Applications Lab, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado

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Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, Colorado

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Edward N. Rappaport National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Zoltan Toth NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado

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Uncertainty information from ensemble prediction systems can enhance and extend the suite of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast products. This article will review progress in ensemble prediction of TCs and the scientific issues in ensemble system development for TCs. Additionally, it will discuss the needs of forecasters and other users for TC uncertainty information and describe some ensemble-based products that may be able to be disseminated in the near future. We hope these proposals will jump-start a community-wide discussion of how to leverage ensemble-based uncertainty information for TC prediction.

A supplement to this article is available online (10.1175/2011BAMS3106.2)

Uncertainty information from ensemble prediction systems can enhance and extend the suite of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast products. This article will review progress in ensemble prediction of TCs and the scientific issues in ensemble system development for TCs. Additionally, it will discuss the needs of forecasters and other users for TC uncertainty information and describe some ensemble-based products that may be able to be disseminated in the near future. We hope these proposals will jump-start a community-wide discussion of how to leverage ensemble-based uncertainty information for TC prediction.

A supplement to this article is available online (10.1175/2011BAMS3106.2)

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