We are grateful to Myles Allen, Tom Crowley, John Mitchell, Tom Wigley, Michael Schlesinger, John Antonov, Syd Levitus, and the anonymous reviewers for discussions, comments, and other help. Work at the Hadley Centre was supported by the U.K. Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under Contract PECD 7/12/37 and by the Government Meteorological Research contract. Sarah Raper was supported at AWI by HGF Strategiefonds Projekt 2000/13 SEAL.
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