The authors thank Ms. Zhen Fan for making numerous draft plots; Dr. R. Wu, Prof. S. Businger, and Mr. Chi-Bao Fu for their assistance in making the final figures; and Drs. Kemball-Cook and Annamalai for their comments. This work is supported by grants from the NOAA Office of Global Change and the ONR Marine Meteorology Program (N00014-96-1-0796). Prof. LinHo is supported by NSC 89-2111-M-002-006-AP7. The International Pacific Research Center is sponsored in part by the Frontier Research System for Global Change.
Annamalai, H., J. M. Slingo, K. R. Sperber, and K. Hodges, 1999: The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. Mon. Wea. Rev, 127 , 1157–1186.
Chen, G. T-J., 1994: Large-scale circulations associated with the East Asian summer monsoon and the Mei-Yu over south China and Taiwan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 72 , 959–983.
He, H., J. W. McGinnis, Z. Song, and M. Yanai, 1987: Onset of the Asian summer monsoon in 1979 and the effect of the Tibetan Plateau. Mon. Wea. Rev, 115 , 1966–1995.
Huang, R-H., and L. Lu, 1989: Numerical simulation of the relationship between the anomaly of the subtropical high over East Asia and the convective activities in the western tropical Pacific. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 6 , 202–214.
Joseph, P. V., J. K. Eischeid, and R. J. Pyle, 1994: Interannual variability of the onset of the Indian summer monsoon and its association with atmospheric features, El Niño, and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 7 , 81–105.
Kang, I-S., C-H. Ho, Y-K. Lim, and K-M. Lau, 1999: Principal modes of climatological, seasonal, and intraseasonal variations of the Asian summer monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev, 127 , 322–340.
Kang, I-S., and and Coauthors, 2001: Intercomparison of GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997–98 El Niño event. Climate Dyn., in press.
Lau, K-M., and S. Yang, 1997: Climatology and interannual variability of the southeast Asian summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 14 , 141–162.
Matsumoto, J., 1997: Seasonal transition of summer rainy season over Indochina and adjacent monsoon region. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 14 , 231–245.
Murakami, T., and J. Matsumoto, 1994: Summer monsoon over the Asian continent and western north Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 72 , 719–745.
Ninomiya, K., and T. Murakami, 1987: The early summer rainy season (baiu) over Japan. Monsoon Meteorology, Oxford University Press, C.-P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., 93–121.
Nitta, T., 1987: Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 65 , 373–390.
Shukla, J., and M. J. Fennessy, 1994: Simulation and predictability of monsoons. Proc. Int. Conf. on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Tech. Rep. WCRP-84, Geneva, Switzerland, WCRP, 567–575.
Sperber, K. R., and T. N. Palmer, 1996: Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J. Climate, 9 , 2727–2750.
Sperber, K. R., and and Coauthors, 2001: Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev, 129 , 2226–2248.
Tanaka, M., 1992: Intraseasonal oscillation and the onset and retreat dates of the summer monsoon over the east, southeast and western north Pacific region using GMS high cloud amount data. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70 , 613–629.
Tao, S., and L. Chen, 1987: A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorology, C.-P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 60–92.
Ueda, H., T. Yasunari, and R. Kawamura, 1995: Abrupt seasonal change of large-scale convective activity over the western Pacific in the northern summer. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 73 , 795–809.
Wang, B., and X. Xu, 1997: Northern Hemispheric summer monsoon singularities and climatological intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 10 , 1071–1085.
Wang, B., R. Wu, and K-M. Lau, 2001: Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Contrasts between the Indian and the western North Pacific–East Asian monsoons. J. Climate, 14 , 4073–4090.
Wu, R., and B. Wang, 2000a: Interannual variability of summer monsoon onset over the western North Pacific and the underlying processes. J. Climate, 13 , 2483–2501.
Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 78 , 2539–2558.
Yanai, M., C. Li, and Z. Song, 1992: Seasonal heating of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70 , 319–351.
Yoshino, M. M., 1965: Four stages of the rainy season in early summer over East Asia (Part I). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 43 , 231–245.
Yoshino, M. M., 1966: Four stages of the rainy season in early summer over East Asia (Part II). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 44 , 209–217.