We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. We also thank Silicon Graphics for help in porting Matlab.
Alexander, L. V., and Coauthors, 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 111 .D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
Collatz, G. J., L. Bounoua, S. O. Los, D. A. Randall, I. Y. Fung, and P. J. Sellers, 2000: A mechanism for the influence of vegetation on the response of the diurnal temperature range to a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27 , 3381–3384.
Colombo, A., D. Etkin, and B. Karney, 1999: Climate variability and the frequency of extreme temperature events for nine sites across Canada: Implications for power usage. J. Climate, 12 , 2490–2502.
Dai, A., 2001: Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies. Part I: Seasonal and interannual variations. J. Climate, 14 , 1092–1111.
Delworth, T. L., and Coauthors, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19 , 643–674.
Dessai, S., X. Lu, and M. Hulme, 2005: Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res., 110 .D19108, doi:10.1029/2005JD005919.
Easterling, D. R., G. A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S. A. Changnon, T. R. Karl, and L. O. Mearns, 2000: Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289 , 2068–2074.
Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. M. G. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson, 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Res., 19 , 193–212.
Griffiths, G. M., and Coauthors, 2005: Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia–Pacific region. Int. J. Climatol., 25 , 1301–1330.
Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noger, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, 881 pp.
Johns, T. C., and Coauthors, 2006: The New Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadGEM1): Evaluation of coupled simulations. J. Climate, 19 , 1327–1353.
Katz, R., and B. Brown, 1992: Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change, 21 , 289–302.
Kharin, V., and F. Zwiers, 2000: Changes in the extremes in a ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM. J. Climate, 13 , 3760–3788.
Kharin, V., F. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2005: Intercomparison of near surface temperature and precipitation extremes in AMIP-2 simulations. J. Climate, 18 , 5201–5223.
Kiktev, D., D. M. H. Sexton, L. Alexander, and C. K. Folland, 2003: Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J. Climate, 16 , 3560–3571.
Knutti, R., G. A. Meehl, M. R. Allen, and D. A. Stainforth, 2006: Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. J. Climate, 19 , 4224–4233.
Luo, Q., R. N. Jones, M. Williams, B. Bryan, and W. Bellotti, 2005: Probabilistic distributions of regional climate change and their application in risk analysis of wheat production. Climate Res., 29 , 41–52.
McAvaney, B. J., and Coauthors, 2001: Model evaluation. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 471–524.
Mearns, L., R. Katz, and S. Schneider, 1984: Extreme high-temperature events: Changes in the probabilities with changes in mean temperature. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23 , 1601–1613.
Meehl, G. A., F. Zwiers, J. Evans, T. Knutson, L. Mearns, and P. Whetton, 2000: Trends in extreme weather and climate events: Issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 427–436.
Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, D. N. Barnett, G. S. Jones, M. J. Webb, M. Collins, and D. A. Stainforth, 2004: Quantification of modeling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430 , 768–772.
Osborn, T. J., and M. Hulme, 1997: Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation. J. Climate, 10 , 1885–1908.
Osborn, T. J., and M. Hulme, 1998: Evaluation of the European daily precipitation characteristics from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Int. J. Climatol., 18 , 505–522.
Peterson, T. C., and Coauthors, 1998: Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric data: A review. Int. J. Climatol., 18 , 1493–1517.
Piani, C., D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth, and M. R. Allen, 2005: Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L23825, doi:10.1029/2005GL024452.
Pitman, A. J., 2003: The evolution of, and revolution in, land surface schemes designed for climate models. Int. J. Climatol., 23 , 479–510.
Schaeffer, M., F. M. Selten, and J. D. Opsteegh, 2005: Shifts in means are not a proxy for changes in extreme winter temperatures in climate projections. Climate Dyn., 25 , 51–63.
Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate model fidelity and projections of climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 .L07702, doi:10.1029/2005GL025579.
Skelly, W., and A. Henderson-Sellers, 1996: Grid box or grid point: What type of data do GCMs deliver to climate impacts researchers? Int. J. Climatol., 16 , 1079–1086.
Taylor, K. E., 2001: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J. Geophys. Res., 106 , D7. 7183–7192.
Trigo, R. M., R. García-Herrera, J. Díaz, and I. F. Trigo, 2005: How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France? Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L10701, doi:10.1029/2005GL022410.
Wild, M., 2005: Solar radiation budgets in atmospheric model intercomparisons from a surface perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L07704, doi:10.1029/2005GL022421.