We gratefully acknowledge the help provided by the reviewers, Piers Forster and Isaac Held, both of whom suggested further simplification of our initial model; Isaac Held suggested the model, and its error term, that we used here. The TMI sea surface temperature product is produced by Remote Sensing Systems and is sponsored by the NASA Earth Science REASoN DISCOVER Project. The CERES data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center EOSDIS Distributed Active Archive Center. This research was supported by NOAA Contract NA05NES4401001 and DOE Contract DE-FG02-04ER63841.
Aires, F., and W. B. Rossow, 2003: Inferring instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities for analysis of feedbacks in a dynamical system: Lorenz model case study. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129 , 239–275.
Battisti, D. S., C. M. Bitz, and R. E. Moritz, 1997: Do general circulation models underestimate the natural variability in the Arctic climate? J. Climate, 10 , 1909–1920.
Cess, R. D., and Coauthors, 1990: Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., 95 , 16601–16615.
Forster, P. M., and J. M. Gregory, 2006: The climate sensitivity and its components diagnosed from Earth Radiation Budget data. J. Climate, 19 , 39–52.
Forster, P. M., and K. E. Taylor, 2006: Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations. J. Climate, 19 , 6181–6194.
Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation regional temperature and precipitation. Science, 269 , 676–679.
Kummerow, C., W. Barnes, T. Kozu, J. Shiue, and J. Simpson, 1998: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 15 , 809–817.
Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 1069–1079.
Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models. J. Climate, 19 , 3354–3360.
Spencer, R. W., W. D. Braswell, J. R. Christy, and J. Hnilo, 2007: Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 .L15707, doi:10.1029/2007GL029698.
Webster, P. J., and G. L. Stephens, 1984: Cloud-radiation feedback and the climate problem. The Global Climate, J. Houghton, Ed., Cambridge University Press, 63–78.
Wentz, F., C. Gentemann, and D. Smith, 2000: Satellite measurements of sea surface temperature through clouds. Science, 288 , 847–850.
Wielicki, B. A., B. R. Barkstrom, E. F. Harrison, R. B. Lee III, G. L. Smith, and J. E. Cooper, 1996: Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES): An Earth Observing System experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 853–868.