The authors thank Prof. Brian Hoskins for his helpful comments and the two anonymous reviewers whose comments have also helped to improve this note.
DJB and TW were supported by the NERC Rapid Climate Change Program, under projects NER/T/S/2002/00441 and NE/C509115/1, respectively. MV was supported by the Defra and MoD Integrated Climate Programme (GA01101, CBC/2B/0417Annex C5).
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