The authors are grateful to Mark Albright, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Anthony F. Eckel, Eric P. Grimit, James A. Hansen, Clifford F. Mass, and Jon A. Wellner for constructive comments, helpful discussions, and providing data. This research was supported by the DoD Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) program administered by the Office of Naval Research under Grant N00014-01-10745.
Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9 , 1518–1530.
Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration. Mon. Wea. Rev, 131 , 1509–1523.
Birgé, L., , and P. Massart, 1993: Rates of convergence for minimum contrast estimators. Probab. Theory Rel. Fields, 97 , 113–150.
Déqué, M., , J. T. Royer, , and R. Stroe, 1994: Formulation of Gaussian probability forecasts based on model extended-range integrations. Tellus, 46A , 52–65.
Eckel, F. A., 2003: Effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, 224 pp. [Available online at www.atmos.washington.edu/ens/pubs_n_pres.html.].
Eckel, F. A., , and M. K. Walters, 1998: Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 13 , 1132–1147.
Gel, Y., , A. E. Raftery, , and T. Gneiting, 2004: Calibrated probabilistic mesoscale weather field forecasting: The geostatistical output perturbation (GOP) method (with discussion and rejoinder). J. Amer. Stat. Assoc, 99 , 575–590.
Glahn, H. R., , and D. A. Lowry, 1972: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor, 11 , 1203–1211.
Gneiting, T., , and A. E. Raftery, 2004: Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. Tech. Rep. 463, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 29 pp. [Available online at www.stat.washington.edu/tech.reports.].
Gneiting, T., , A. E. Raftery, , F. Balabdaoui, , and A. Westveld, 2003: Verifying probabilistic forecasts: Calibration and sharpness. Proc. Workshop on Ensemble Weather Forecasting in the Short to Medium Range, Val-Morin, QC, Canada. [Available online at www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/tom.hamill/ef_workshop_2003_schedule.html.].
Grimit, E. P., , and C. F. Mass, 2002: Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 192–205.
Grimit, E. P., , and C. F. Mass, 2004: Forecasting mesoscale uncertainty: Short-range ensemble forecast error predictability. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 24.3. [Available online at www.atmos.washington.edu/ens/pubs_n_pres.html.].
Hamill, T. M., , and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126 , 711–724.
Hamill, T. M., , J. S. Whitaker, , and X. Wei, 2004: Ensemble reforecasting: Improving medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 132 , 1434–1447.
Hersbach, H., 2000: Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Wea. Forecasting, 15 , 559–570.
Houtekamer, P. L., , L. Lefaivre, , J. Derome, , H. Ritchie, , and H. L. Mitchell, 1996: A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev, 124 , 1225–1242.
Jewson, S., , A. Brix, , and C. Ziehmann, 2004: A new parametric model for the assessment and calibration of medium-range ensemble temperature forecasts. Atmos. Sci. Lett, 5 , 96–102.
Krishnamurti, T. N., , C. M. Kishtawal, , T. E. LaRow, , D. R. Bachiochi, , Z. Zhang, , C. E. Williford, , S. Gadgil, , and S. Surendan, 1999: Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science, 285 , 1548–1550.
Krishnamurti, T. N., , C. M. Kishtawal, , Z. Zhang, , T. E. LaRow, , D. Bachiochi, , E. Williford, , S. Gadgil, , and S. Surendan, 2000: Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate, 13 , 4196–4216.
Mass, C. F., and Coauthors, 2003: Regional environmental prediction over the Pacific Northwest. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 84 , 1353–1366.
Molteni, F., , R. Buizza, , T. N. Palmer, , and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 122 , 73–119.
Murphy, A. H., , and R. L. Winkler, 1979: Probabilistic temperature forecasts: The case for an operational program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 60 , 12–19.
Press, W. H., , S. A. Teukolsky, , W. T. Vetterling, , and B. P. Flannery, 1992: Numerical Recipes in FORTRAN: The Art of Scientific Computing. 2d ed. Cambridge University Press, 963 pp.
Raftery, A. E., , T. Gneiting, , F. Balabdaoui, , and M. Polakowski, 2005: Using a Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev, 133 , 1155–1174.
Richardson, D. S., 2001: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of sample size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 127 , 2473–2489.
Roulston, M. S., , and L. A. Smith, 2002: Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Mon. Wea. Rev, 130 , 1653–1660.
Saetra, Ø, , H. Hersbach, , J-R. Bidlot, , and D. S. Richardson, 2004: Effects of observation errors on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability. Mon. Wea. Rev, 132 , 1487–1501.
Scherrer, S. C., , C. Appenzeller, , P. Eckert, , and D. Cattani, 2004: Analysis of the spread-skill relations using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system over Europe. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 552–565.
Stefanova, L., , and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2002: Interpretation of seasonal climate forecast using Brier score, the Florida State University superensemble, and the AMIP-I dataset. J. Climate, 15 , 537–544.
Stensrud, D. J., , and N. Yussouf, 2003: Short-range predictions of 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature over New England. Mon. Wea. Rev, 131 , 2510–2524.
Talagrand, O., , R. Vautard, , and B. Strauss, 1997: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 1–25.
Toth, Z., , O. Talagrand, , G. Candille, , and Y. Zhu, 2003: Probability and ensemble forecasts. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, I. T. Jolliffe and D. B. Stephenson, Eds., Wiley, 137–163.
Unger, D. A., 1985: A method to estimate the continuous ranked probability score. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Virginia Beach, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 206–213.
Van den Dool, H. M., , and L. Rukhovets, 1994: On the weights for an ensemble-averaged 6–10-day forecast. Wea. Forecasting, 9 , 457–465.
Whitaker, J. S., , and A. F. Loughe, 1998: The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126 , 3292–3302.
Wilks, D. S., 2002: Smoothing forecast ensembles with fitted probability distributions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 128 , 2821–2836.
Wilson, L. J., , W. R. Burrows, , and A. Lanzinger, 1999: A strategy for verification of weather element forecasts from an ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev, 127 , 956–970.