This research was supported in part by the Managing Climate Variability Program of Land and Water Australia, through the multi-institution collaborative project QPI62. Thanks to Robert Fawcett for his efforts in producing and providing the gridded rainfall dataset, Wasyl Drosdowsky for his guidance early in the project, Sarah Lennox for her statistical advice, Sam Cleland and Tim Schatz for hosting our visits to the Northern Territory, and Scott Power for his enthusiasm and suggestion to also test SST1. The logistic regression software was obtained from Alan Miller’s suite of statistical routines in Fortran (information online at http://users.bigpond.net.au/amiller/). We thank Pandora Hope and Robert Fawcett for their internal reviews, as well as two anonymous external reviewers.
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