This study was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation through the National Centre for Competence in Research (NCCR) Climate and by a grant/cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA10OAR4310210). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subagencies.
Mason, S. J., and N. E. Graham, 2002: Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (roc) and levels (rol) curves: Statistical significance and intepretation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2145–2166.
Mason, S. J., and A. P. Weigel, 2009: A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331–349.
van der Linden, P., and J. F. B. Mitchell, Eds., 2009: ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts at seasonal, decadal and centennial timescales—Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, 160 pp.
Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2008: Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of ensemble forecasts? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 241–260.
Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2009: Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multimodels? Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1460–1479.