This work is based upon a portion of the first author’s Ph.D. dissertation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The authors thank Dr. Jason Sippel (NASA GSFC), Dr. Brian Tang (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Prof. Kerry Emanuel (MIT), Dr. Cecile Penland (NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory), and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. The authors gratefully acknowledge funding provided by National Science Foundation Grant 0838196.
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The singular value decomposition represents
This can be explained using the analogy that the reading ability among youths is correlated to shoe size only because shoe size is correlated to age; the ER operator may have predictive power only because the two fields that define the operator are both correlated to an exogenous field or mechanism.