All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 43 29 5
PDF Downloads 23 12 2

The Weather Information and Skill Experiment (WISE): The Effect of Varying Levels of Information on Forecast Skill

View More View Less
  • 1 Phillips Laboratory, Geophysics Directorate, Hanscom Air Force Base, Massachusetts
  • | 2 Center for Policy Research, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York
  • | 3 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Environmental Research Laboratories/Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
  • | 4 University Center for Policy Research, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York
Full access

Abstract

The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant and severe weather events under three information conditions. Forecast accuracy was generally low. As the amount and quality of the information increased substantially, there was a modest increase in the accuracy of the forecasts. However, the results suggest that the forecasters were least consistent when they had the most information to work with, partially reducing the benefits of the increased information.

Abstract

The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant and severe weather events under three information conditions. Forecast accuracy was generally low. As the amount and quality of the information increased substantially, there was a modest increase in the accuracy of the forecasts. However, the results suggest that the forecasters were least consistent when they had the most information to work with, partially reducing the benefits of the increased information.

Save